Sunday’s game in Kansas City will mark the fourth time in 24 months that the Patriots face quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The strategy for beating the Chiefs isn’t a secret.
“Ball control and points. You know that,” Patriots running backs coach Ivan Fears said Tuesday. “Let’s get the points, and let’s control the ball. I don’t care how we do it. Dink and dunk, quarterback sneak, I don’t give a [expletive]. Just get it done.”
The Chiefs are 3-0 and haven’t slowed down since winning the Super Bowl in February. With the strongest-armed quarterback in the game, and a receiving corps that could compete in a 4 x 100 relay, the Chiefs are No. 4 in the NFL in scoring (30.3 points per game), and are a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
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In Monday night’s dominant win over the Ravens, the Chiefs scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions, including a 49-yard score on third and 14.
“They have guys coming off the bench who can run 4.3 in the 40,” quipped Patriots linebackers coach Jerod Mayo. “The problem with Kansas City is they’re able to stretch you vertically and horizontally. That always puts a lot of stress on the defense.”
The best way to slow down the Chiefs, then, is to make sure they don’t have the football. Since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 1-5 when they possess the ball for fewer than 25 minutes.
Nobody knows this better than Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who owns two of those Chiefs defeats. In the Patriots' 2018 regular-season win, the Chiefs held the ball for just 23:51. In the Patriots' AFC Championship game overtime win that year, the Patriots had a staggering advantage in time of possession, 43:59 to 20:53. But in the Chiefs' 2019 win at Gillette Stadium, the Chiefs held the ball for 34:21.
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| Year | Result | Patriots TOP | Chiefs TOP | Patriots RZ TDs | Patriots rushing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 regular season | Patriots 43-40 | 36:09 | 23:51 | 4 of 6 | 38 for 173 yds, 3 TDs |
| 2019 AFC Championship Game | Patriots 37-31 | 43:59 | 20:53 | 4 of 5 | 48 for 176 yds, 4 TDs |
| 2019 regular season | Chiefs 23-16 | 25:39 | 34:21 | 1 of 3 | 22 for 94 yds, 1 TD |
The strategy to play keep-away is not unique to the Patriots. Just two weeks ago, the Chargers held the ball for 39:27 in a 23-20 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
“Controlling the football and being able to control the clock, keep that offense off the field, will be a big part of any success you can have on them,” CBS analyst Bill Cowher said. “You can’t give them any extra possessions, and you may have to steal one somewhere.”
Of course, keeping the ball away from the Chiefs isn’t easy. They are 11th in the NFL in time of possession this season (31:03 per game). The Ravens, arguably the best running team in the league, held the ball for just 26:04 on Monday night.
But the Patriots may have the personnel to pull it off. With Cam Newton replacing Tom Brady, the Patriots are a more dynamic rushing team and are operating efficiently this season.
Through three games, the Patriots rank:
▪ First in rushing (178 yards per game)
▪ Fifth in rushing average (5.1 yards per carry)
▪ Second in first downs (83)
▪ First in rushing first downs (37)
▪ Sixth in time of possession (32:43)
▪ Tied for first in 10-play touchdown drives (five)
▪ 11th in third-down conversions (45.5 percent)
The Patriots' effectiveness in running the football has directly correlated to their success against Mahomes. They had 38 rushes for 173 yards (4.6-yard average) and three touchdowns in the 2018 win, and 48 rushes for 176 yards (3.7-yard average) and four touchdowns in the AFC Championship game. But they had just 22 rushes for 94 yards (4.3-yard average) and one touchdown in the 2019 loss.
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It’s not enough to just play keep-away from the Chiefs.
“Well, it’s not as important as scoring points,” Belichick said Wednesday. “I mean, ultimately, the game is going to be decided by which team has the most points, not who has more first downs or who has more time of possession or whatever other stats you want. You know, all that plays into it, but scoring is really the name of the game.”
Field goals don’t cut it against the Chiefs. The Patriots scored 43 points in the 2018 win, and 37 in the AFC Championship game, but only 16 points in last year’s loss. The Chargers were able to keep the ball away from the Chiefs two weeks ago, but 20 points weren’t enough to win it.
The Patriots went 8 for 11 in red-zone touchdowns in the two wins over the Chiefs, and 1 for 3 in the loss. This year, the Patriots rank 18th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, converting 60 percent (9 of 15) through three games.
“As much as ball possession is important, you’re going to have to still score points, because you’re not going to be able to hold Kansas City all day long,” Cowher said. “Making first downs and controlling the ball is a big part of it, but I think winning third downs and finishing drives is going to be especially important for them in this game.”
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The Patriots enter Sunday’s game as 7-point underdogs, and will have to play a near-perfect game to pull off the road upset. But the Patriots could make this one interesting, especially if their defense can limit the Chiefs' big plays and clamp down in the red zone.
The Ravens rushed for 158 yards and averaged a healthy 7.5 yards per carry on Monday. And the Chiefs don’t really know what to expect from Newton and the Patriots' offense.
“When you went against Tom Brady, you had a pretty good feel for what the offense was going to do,” Cowher said. “Right now you really only have three games of a body of work with Cam Newton, so use that to your advantage. Do some of the unexpected, do some things that people have not seen before.”
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin
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