This winter’s shortstop market has been compared to a game of musical chairs more than once.
There are two or three elite shortstops, at least three more really good ones and an unknown number of teams seeking their services.
But the metaphor works both ways: When the music stops, will a team be left without a shortstop? Or will a shortstop be left without a team (at least a team willing to sign him at a market rate)?
Players (and their agents) want to emphasize the risk of the first scenario. Teams want players to fret about the second scenario.
Every leak, every report and every rumor during the free-agent season should be considered with those factors in mind.
Take one example: A week ago, if you were placing odds on the two teams likeliest to sign No. 1 shortstop Carlos Correa, it probably would have been the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees. So recent reports that the Tigers and Yankees weren’t interested in spending $300 million on a shortstop were notable. What about the Los Angeles Dodgers, another big-market team with a potential void at the position? They’re reportedly interested in re-signing Corey Seager but otherwise have no plans to engage with the high-end shortstop market.
Noticing a trend? There are only a limited number of teams capable of meeting Correa’s potential price tag and as those teams fall by the wayside, the musical-chair pressure increases on Correa.
What this all means for the larger shortstop market is unclear. But make no mistake: Correa may ultimately sign for less than $300 million, but it’s very unlikely to happen in November. It might not happen until February.
The rest of the shortstops probably can’t afford to wait that long.
Let’s say Marcus Semien or Javier Baez decide to solicit offers early in the winter. Do the Tigers (or another team in the same boat) make a competitive bid, or do they bide their time, waiting to see if Correa’s price tag will come down to earth closer to spring training?
The risk on both sides is losing the game of musical chairs.
The possibility of a lockout on Dec. 1 raises another interesting consideration. A short work stoppage through the holidays probably wouldn’t matter much. But a long stoppage that goes right up to the start of spring training would presumably cause a flurry of signings in a matter of days once the lockout was lifted. It would be more like the NFL’s rapid-fire free agency than MLB’s normal glacial pace.
Agents and general managers are weighing all these questions right now.
Sometimes a big deal can get done quickly: The Tigers identified left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez as their target and made an extremely competitive offer. He decided not to wait.
But the shortstop market -- because of the number of players and teams involved -- might be more complicated.
Who will lose the game of musical chairs? We won’t know until the music stops.
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November 23, 2021 at 02:54AM
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Tigers in middle of MLB shortstop market filled with intrigue - MLive.com
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