Since 2018, 29 rookie RBs and WRs have cracked the 170-point mark in PPR, according to Pro Football Reference. That’s a little more than seven per year and equates to about a top-70 non-QB (in other words, a top-six-round value).
A top-48 (first four rounds) pick scores at least 200 PPR points, and 16 rookies have done that since 2018, an average of four per year. Six have been “boom” players, meaning 250 points or more (about a top-20 pick), and one, Saquon Barkley, was a league winner at nearly 400 points (385).
Of the 29 total fantasy-relevant rookies with 170-point PPR performances, 10 have been real-life first-round picks. Ten have been second-rounders. And seven were taken in the third round or later in the actual draft. Two — 2020’s James Robinson and 2018’s Phillip Lindsay — thrived as undrafted free agents. Last year, a fourth-round real-life pick, Amon-Ra St. Brown, was the eighth-highest-scoring rookie in the four-year period.
This is what the numbers tell us: Two to three first-rounders on average pop, as do about three second-rounders (remember, more RBs are taken in the second round) and about two “others,” including free agents.
But what are the denominators? There were 22 first-round (real NFL Draft) RBs and WRs in the period, so 45.4 percent of them hit. Let’s call it half. There are 36 second-rounders, for a hit rate of 28 percent. There are 158 in the third round or later, for a hit rate of about 3 percent (excluding the undrafted players).
Here is the pool of candidates and their teams this year:
First-round rookies
Drake London (WR, Falcons), Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets), Chris Olave (WR, Saints), Jameson Williams (WR, Lions), Jahan Dotson (WR, Redskins), Treylon Burks (WR, Titans)
So about half of these guys are going to be fantasy relevant. The early ADP market is not betting on these WRs very heavily; London is about WR40, Wilson WR45, Olave WR47, Williams WR56, Dotson WR65, but then Burks is way out of order, all the way up to WR38. Since round correlates to success, it’s logical that draft order should, too. Why expect so much out of the lowest-drafted first-round WR?
The value here is obviously Dotson. Always gamble when you are paid to gamble. Do not pay to gamble, as you’d be doing with Burks. I’d stay away from Williams because of his ACL injury and the likelihood he’s not even active to start the season. I see no problem with where the other rookies are drafted, but no bargains, either.
Second-round rookies
In the second round this year we have 10 players, including three running backs: Christian Watson (WR, Packers), Breece Hall (RB, Jets), Kenneth Walker (RB, Seahawks), Wan’Dale Robinson (WR, Giants), John Metchie (WR, Texans), Tyquan Thornton (WR, Patriots), George Pickens (WR, Steelers), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Skyy Moore (WR, Chiefs), James Cook (RB, Bills).
Two or three of these guys will pop. Breece Hall is the obvious choice, as he’s slated for a heavy workload. View his floor as 2021 Javonte Williams (though he’s more comparable to Jonathan Taylor as a runner). So there are maybe one or two more guys (at most) who will be real assets. Draft order here is not much of a help. Of course, Walker is a candidate to be the starting RB for Seattle with draft capital in the top third of the first round. However, the Seahawks staff does not have a reputation for giving highly drafted running backs commensurate touches. Walker is RB26 vs. RB17 for Hall. I think that’s right. But Walker is at least cheap. Cook is RB37, and I think that’s also right for a guy who is probably limited to being a receiving back on a team that does not throw much to RBs, historically.
As for the second-round receivers, the market is betting the most on Moore, and it makes sense given the Chiefs need to replace Tyreek Hill. But you have to expect Moore to be the third WR and fourth receiving option behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Travis Kelce. Historically, we need a guy who steps into a starting (top two) WR role. At the respective prices, I like Alec Pierce as a player who can do that in Indy, alongside Michael Pittman. And he’s been going off the board at WR72, which is a free roll. (In a dynasty format, of course Moore is the play; there’s just so much long-term upside with Mahomes as his QB.)
Later picks/free agents
I don’t want to ever say never, but the odds of a pick from the third round or later popping are so low that you should not burn draft capital on them. If they emerge in-season, that’s why we have the waiver wire. Of course, if a later pick falls into a starting gig on the eve of your draft, by all means take him. Then draft capital hardly matters. You just don’t want to bet on any of these later-round guys or free agents emerging from obscurity.
(Photo of Drake London: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
"do it" - Google News
June 19, 2022 at 12:12AM
https://ift.tt/KY3Bmfe
Want to draft Drake London? Do it — data shows that rookies win fantasy football leagues - The Athletic
"do it" - Google News
https://ift.tt/LOupsF5
https://ift.tt/HTFhje0
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Want to draft Drake London? Do it — data shows that rookies win fantasy football leagues - The Athletic"
Post a Comment