We can’t replace Neymar, to borrow a line from a movie you’re probably sick of hearing nerds talk about, but what we can do is recreate him in the aggregate.
First, though, let’s get the obvious out of the way: no, Brazil is not better without Neymar.
He was the Selecao’s indispensable player in World Cup qualifying, just like at last year’s Copa America (where Neymar’s ludicrous 1.7 non-penalty expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes nearly doubled Lionel Messi’s figure), just like he has been pretty much any time he’s been healthy since 2010 (during which span Neymar has scored more goals than any Brazilian ever except some guy named Pele).
If a mediocre hour spent getting his ankles surgically removed by Serbia persuaded you that Neymar’s absence isn’t a big deal for the team he made tournament favourites, he’s got a million dollars of cartoon apes he’d probably like to sell you.
But this is still Brazil we’re talking about, a country about as short on talent that can create goals as on dance moves to celebrate them. The only question without their biggest star is how to fit the rest of the constellation together.
One face all but guaranteed to see the field is Vinicius Junior. It took until the back half of Brazil’s qualifying campaign for the 22-year-old left winger to earn his manager Tite’s trust, but at the end of a calendar year that’s seen him make the leap from “fun kid to watch on YouTube” to “possibly the best player at Real Madrid, including the one who won the Ballon d’Or,” Vini is the first guy Brazil will want breaking down defences in Neymar’s absence.
What’s less clear is who should play beside him. Neymar used to be a left winger, too, but years apprenticing under Lionel Messi transformed him into one of the world’s best inside playmakers. That made it easy for Tite to deploy him as a left-leaning attacking midfielder while Vinicius hugged the sideline as a dribbling winger.
Together, their shtick was as simple as it was unstoppable: again and again, Neymar would drop to the ball in the left half-space and square up against a couple of nervous defenders, which left Vini one-on-one to blow past an overmatched right-back and into the box.
Brazil doesn’t really have a like-for-like replacement in that left inside playmaker role. The closest fit in their talent pool is probably Coutinho, whom Tite used to order up as a diet Neymar whenever he couldn’t have the real thing. But after slipping into anonymity at Aston Villa, Coutinho didn’t even make the World Cup squad.
That leaves Brazil with a lot of different — sometimes very different — Neymar alternatives.
The most aggressive option is another young Real Madrid forward, Rodrygo, who got a few minutes at the end of the Serbia game in a Neymar-ish role. Like Neymar, Rodrygo is a dribbly right-footed winger who can find shots in the box. But most of his minutes at Madrid have come on the right wing opposite Vinicius, not lined up beside him, and it remains to be seen how well he can work between compact lines. It would raise a few eyebrows if Tite gave a 21-year-old his first ever international start in an unproven role at the World Cup.
The safer move would be to play Fred in midfield alongside (and usually a little ahead of) Casemiro. Those two are team-mates at Manchester United now, and even if Fred isn’t Erik ten Hag’s first choice for his club, he’s been a trusted part of Tite’s line-up since the Copa America. He can’t do Neymar duty passing through the lines in possession, but Fred’s hyperactive defending and selfless commitment to plugging holes in his side’s structure give more talented players freedom to get creative.
The most likely beneficiary of the Fred dividend would be Lucas Paqueta, another Tite favourite. When Neymar is working between the lines, Paqueta often plays deeper on the right, outside the defensive shape, for a little extra defensive solidity.
That was probably a little overcautious against Serbia — combined with Brazil’s wide wingers and unadventurous full-backs, it left few forward passing options in the middle. Tite asked Paqueta to push forward into a 4-3-3 midfield in the second half, like the more attacking role he plays at West Ham, and it paid off. “The repositioning mainly of Paqueta allowed us to have one more player in the pocket,” the coach said. “The play started to flow more after.”
With Fred in midfield, Paqueta would be free to stay between the lines in attacking midfield. It wouldn’t entirely make up for the loss of Neymar’s playmaking, but it’s a start.
You know what’s better than one playmaking midfielder, though? How about bringing on Bruno Guimaraes opposite Paqueta as a second box-to-box option?
Like his compatriot at West Ham, Bruno pretty much does it all in midfield for Newcastle, getting up and down the pitch on the left or right side — he’s in the 97th percentile among midfielders for both tackles and non-penalty goals, just to give you some idea of how complete his stat profile looks. He’s an excellent passer and dribbler who can play the final ball or a ball-winner who can orchestrate from deep.
For some reason Tite has never seemed sold on Bruno, who has only gone more than 45 minutes once in his international career. When he does play, he tends to be deployed deeper, in a holding midfield pair. His irrepressible drive to break forward showed in his one full game, when Bruno and Paqueta ripped through Bolivia’s entire defence from the halfway line with a startling pass-and-move combo.
Without that kind of one-two attacking oomph, it’s hard to say who will break lines for Brazil. It might not hurt to have Gabriel Jesus’s silky dribbling and comfort dropping off the front line at striker, but it would be cruel and maybe too clever by half to bench Richarlison after a two-goal game that included the strike of the tournament so far.
ARE YOU SERIOUS RICHARLISON?! 😱😱🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/FQX0f45byh
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) November 24, 2022
Any of these options offers some of what Neymar can bring as a passer, dribbler, creator and goal-scorer. None can do it all. Tite’s job is to find the best balance for each opponent and game situation to keep grinding out results until his star gets back — and who knows, maybe along the way he’ll figure out how to recreate him in the aggregate.
(Photo: Lionel Hahn/Getty Images)
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