“Defense wins championships” – legendary football coach Bear Bryant
That may not be quite as true in the modern NFL, but defenses can still win playoff games, especially when they’re as talented and well-coached as this Ravens unit.
Baltimore put up an exceptional performance against the Bengals in October and another very good game without Marcus Peters last week. Mike Macdonald has figured out how to throw Joe Burrow off his game, and more importantly, he’s done an excellent job of instilling that in his players.
The Bengals only managed 257 total yards, with just 2.8 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per passing attempt. They scored all but six of their points after getting the ball in Ravens territory, going 5-for-15 on 3rd down for the game. Cincy had just three 1st downs in the second half, all of which came on one drive. Otherwise, they didn’t get a 1st down on their last five possessions – talk about finishing strong!
Regardless, Baltimore will need to be fully dialed in for all 60 minutes again on Sunday against what is still a very talented Cincinnati offense. Let’s dive into some film to see how Baltimore can control the game on defense and come away with a win.
The Ravens defense was consistently put at a disadvantage by offensive miscues on Sunday, including the Anthony Brown interception that set up the Bengals’ third drive.
Bengals' 3rd drive and Roquan is well into Predator mode. The pullers draw Queen, but Roquan sifts through the traffic and makes a strong tackle despite a decent gain. pic.twitter.com/EMNU9nBl67
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
Patrick Queen sees pulling blockers and overcommits, but Roquan Smith patiently scrapes over top to make the stop. I love the way he tackles; it’s high and physical but technically sound, with an excellent understanding of the physics in stopping ballcarriers.
Macdonald’s coverage shells forced the Bengals into calling several screens on Sunday, but they also drew up this nice fake that should have been a TD.
Next play on the drive, the Bengals execute a fake screen for a wide open deep shot that Burrow just misses. The Ravens will need a break or two like that on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/JKvXu2hkkx
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins sell their blocks very well, getting Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams to both bite on the screen. Higgins then gets Worley with a clean inside release, but Burrow overthrows him.
I’m sure Macdonald highlighted this play during film study this week. It’s an excellent counter to the natural instinctiveness and aggressiveness of Baltimore’s defense for which the team should prepare.
The Ravens will need a few strokes of luck on Sunday, too, so Burrow should feel free to overthrow open receivers all he wants. It didn’t actually matter on this drive, though, as Burrow threw a ball to nearly the same spot on the next play, this time on-target to Ja’Marr Chase for a TD.
Burrow checks into a max-protect deep shot against the blitz on 3rd-down, and Ja'Marr Chase just wins this one. Props to Daryl Worley, still; he played his butt off. pic.twitter.com/yFcGvX9Ult
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
Burrow identifies the man blitz from Baltimore and checks into a max-protect deep shot, his favorite call. The Ravens are prepared for the audible, but Worley just can’t hang with Chase at the catch point.
The Ravens should try to exploit this tendency on Sunday by showing a similar look but dropping the would-be blitzers into coverage, with hole defenders looking to undercut quick routes and deep half defenders taking away the deep sideline shot.
They’ll still have to deal with Samaje Perine, who continues to be one of the best (and most underrated!) pass-protecting backs in the National Football League. He stymied the Ravens a number of times last year, and did it again on Sunday. He seems most adept at catching free runners on the edge, so some more interior twists and stunts or even a safety or inside backer blitz up the middle can throw Perine a curveball.
Baltimore was rock-solid in the second half, though, setting the tone coming out of halftime with this quick stop. The Ravens flip their pre-snap look in response to the Bengals motion, and Burrow just looks lost.
The Ravens shut down the Bengals offense in the second-half, starting with their first drive. This is a clear case when the Ravens throw a weird pre-snap look with post-snap adjustments to confuse Burrow, and it works! pic.twitter.com/FbE4tx0ejf
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
Williams and Roquan don’t pass off Hayden Hurst properly, leaving him open across the middle, but Burrow is so thoroughly confused that he takes the easy throw. Hamilton gladly finishes the play, with gusto.
Cincy’s passing game relies heavily on passes to the sideline, but Baltimore will work hard to minimize those chances. That will leave the middle of the field as a key battleground on Sunday, but I think Macdonald is more than ready, if not intentionally setting it up. He has three players with phenomenal instincts and athleticism in Smith, Williams and Hamilton who can disrupt passing lanes and force turnovers over the middle.
For example:
Another disguised coverage where Marcus Williams baits Joe Burrow into a throw that Williams knows he can break up. Man, did the Ravens nail his signing or what??? pic.twitter.com/qqBRFTbWn3
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
Queen and Williams are botched align to show middle-of-field-open (MOFO) coverage pre-snap before quickly moving to middle-of-field-closed (MOFC) post-snap. Queen tries to lurk for the pick while Williams focuses on the PBU in a very solid, disciplined play.
Burrow has a clean pocket and a seemingly open receiver on this play, yet the ball falls incomplete because he did exactly what the Ravens wanted him to do. He’ll be studying up for similar looks this week, so Macdonald will need to devise new changeups to throw at him.
Here’s an example of another wrinkle. This slot blitz from Hamilton is already on tape – most recently from the January Steelers game – so Burrow thinks he’s full-go for the screen. Instead, Hamilton drops back out and uses his insane length and athleticism to break up the pass with some emphasis.
And finally, Burrow thinks he has Hamilton coming on the slot blitz, but it's a well-executed fake and the rookie goes GOBLIN MODE to blow it up. pic.twitter.com/VCg9pDLSHj
— Nikhil Mehta (@nmehtaUR2022) January 14, 2023
The first-round pick is blossoming at the perfect time for the Ravens, giving Macdonald a weapon that allows him to attack the Bengals offense instead of only scrambling to contain them.
I didn’t even include any running plays in this breakdown a) because the Ravens held Joe Mixon to just 27 yards and b) because I expect Cincy to lean into their pass-heavy identity in this game. They’ll want to get ahead early and force the Ravens to play from behind, which has so often been their kryptonite, especially without Lamar Jackson.
I hate to state the obvious but: it’s of paramount importance that Baltimore’s defense does not allow that to happen. They must be 100% locked-in from the opening kickoff and force the Bengals to earn every single yard they gain. If the offense does their job in limiting mistakes and winning the field position battle, I’m very confident in this defense’s ability limit Cincy’s drives and give the offense a few opportunities to score of their own.
That’s how defense wins championships, and without Jackson for the foreseeable future, that’s the Ravens’ only path to advancing in the postseason.
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