The Lions (10-4) are headed toward the franchise's first division crown in 30 years. Detroit can clinch that title as soon as Sunday if they leave U.S. Bank Stadium with a win over the reeling Vikings (7-7).
But hold on.
These versions of the surging Lions and stumbling Vikings have not yet met. On paper and in the Lions' recent games, there's been plenty of evidence to suggest you can still rattle quarterback Jared Goff, who garners a lot of respect from Vikings coaches who were with him on the Rams.
The Vikings rattle quarterbacks under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has his own successful track record against Goff. The Vikings' league-high blitz rate forces the ball out quickly and has buoyed 41 sacks that are tied for eighth among NFL defenses this year.
Despite having a comfortable lead in the NFC North, the Lions are the only NFL division leader without a winning division record at this point. They're 2-2 after dropping games to Chicago and Green Bay within the last four weeks.
A common theme in those games: a pressured Goff.
Two weeks ago, the Lions lost 28-13 at Chicago. Goff mustered a season-low 161 passing yards against a Bears defense that pressured him in just about every fashion. Lions left tackle Taylor Decker struggled in one-on-one situations. Bears head coach Matt Eberflus sparsely blitzed Goff, but just about every blitz worked. Goff left Soldier Field completing just 2 of 6 passes for three yards, an interception and a sack against 5+ pass rushers, according to a Star Tribune review of the Dec. 10 game.
In the video below, you'll see four times Goff facing the blitz in key spots. The first blitz sets up a 6-on-6 pass rush; Decker, the Lions left tackle, is overpowered by former Vikings edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue. The second blitz should've been beaten, but Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs drops a screen that could've been a huge play. On the next fourth down, the Bears send the house and Goff makes a bad decision that leads to a pick. Later in the game, Goff can't connect with Jameson Williams downfield when blitzed on third down.
Goff's 2023 quarterback rating via Pro Football Focus
Clean: 113.8 (3rd)
Pressured: 64.4 (20th)
Not blitzed: 102.7 (3rd)
Blitzed: 89.2 (16th)
This is not a new thing. NFL defensive coordinators have known this and blitzed Goff at a league-high clip — 186 times — last season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Goff has also famously struggled against Flores-called defenses during both the Rams' Super Bowl loss in February 2019 to the Patriots as well as the Rams' loss in Miami during the 2020 season.
Nobody blitzes more than Flores' Vikings at a 47.7% rate, a number he likely considers to be higher because blitzes are typically tracked as plays with 5+ pass rushers. But the Vikings also run 4-man fire zone blitzes, in which a front defender drops into coverage and is replaced by a linebacker or defensive back.
The Bears threw some fire zones at Goff in that Dec. 10 game, and the Lions also struggled against those. A key difference for Detroit will be the return of center Frank Ragnow, the Victoria, Minn. native who is one of the league's best centers and missed that loss to Chicago.
Ragnow played against the Packers in Detroit's Thanksgiving Day loss, yet Goff was still pressured on 52% of his dropbacks and lost three fumbles.
The Vikings couldn't rattle Bengals quarterback Jake Browning as easily. Browning completed 8 of 13 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown when pressured by the Vikings in Saturday's loss. That's a 120.4 quarterback rating that Goff has not reached against pressure in a single game this season.
The Vikings have faced three other quarterbacks who rate as poorly against the blitz this season as Goff: the Eagles' Jalen Hurts, the Bears' Justin Fields and the Panthers' Bryce Young.
Results were widely varied. Hurts torched the Vikings' blitz way back in Week 2, after which the Chargers' Justin Herbert did the same thing a week later. The Vikings eventually found their footing under Flores after Hurts completed 10 of 13 passes for 179 yards and a score against a roughly 50% blitz rate in the Sept. 14 loss.
The Vikings defense leveled Fields and Young: Minnesota blitzed Fields about 50% and limited him to 5.9 yards per throw and 12 points; they blitzed Young around 31% and held him to 6.4 yards per throw and six points on offense.
Of course, stopping the focal point of the Lions offense, which is the running back tandem of Gibbs and David Montgomery, will be paramount.
But if the Vikings can do that, they appear well suited to rattle Goff in obvious passing situations.
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Blitzing can bother Lions QB Jared Goff. How much will the Vikings do it? - Star Tribune
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