If they could do it over again, would Saints pick Carr or Mayfield? - Tampa Bay Times

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TAMPA — Welcome to today’s installment of Know Your Quarterback.

With a nod toward this week’s NFC South showdown between New Orleans and Tampa Bay, we’ll focus on Saints passer Derek Carr.

How many playoff games has Carr won in the NFL?

(Zero.)

How much money did the Saints give Carr?

(A 4-year deal for $150 million with $100 million guaranteed.)

How unhappy are New Orleans fans with Carr today?

(Very. Extremely, totally and utterly are also acceptable.)

Funny how the NFL free agency picture has turned out in 2023. Well, maybe not so funny if you’re starting the day with a beignet.

Back in March, Carr and Baker Mayfield had similar winning percentages in their careers (.443 for Carr, .449 for Mayfield), similar yards per attempt (7.1 to 7.2), similar touchdown percentages (4.4 to 4.5) and passer ratings in the same neighborhood (91.8 to 86.5). Carr was soon to turn 32 and Mayfield was closing in on 28.

And yet Carr’s guaranteed money was 25 times larger than what Mayfield got from the Bucs.

Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) is sacked by Rams linebacker Ernest Jones left, during Thursday's game. [ RYAN SUN | AP ]

Anyone in New Orleans interested in a do-over?

If this sounds like a slam of Carr, that’s not my intent. It’s more about how perceptions can sometimes warp reality when assessing players.

It’s probably fair to say that, with 14 combined NFL seasons and a 1-2 playoff record between them, Carr and Mayfield were carrying some disappointment around in their gym bags. And yet, despite having similar numbers, their reputations were wildly different nine months ago.

Carr was considered a victim of the dysfunction within the Raiders organization while Mayfield was assigned a hefty share of the blame for problems in Cleveland and Carolina. Maybe there was some truth in those perceptions, but not to the extreme of $100 million guaranteed versus $4 million guaranteed.

And, in some ways, perceptions are still driving the story. Carr has a 7-8 record with 93.6 passer rating in New Orleans but is being treated like a colossal disappointment because of the size of his contract and the weight of expectations. Mayfield has an 8-7 record with a 96.2 passer rating but is hearing praise from every corner of the league because he looked washed up just a short time ago.

Take away kick returns and defensive touchdowns, and the two offenses are producing at a similar rate. The Bucs have 34 touchdowns and 26 field goals. The Saints have 33 touchdowns and 25 field goals. But, again, it’s the perception that is driving the narrative.

Carr gets called a pretender because of problems in the red zone while Mayfield is hearing sonnets for a hard-nosed approach.

Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) signs autographs for fans at the end of the Oct. 1 game against the Saints in New Orleans. [ BUTCH DILL | AP ]

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“It starts with No. 6 over there,” Bucs tackle Tristan Wirfs said of Mayfield’s influence on the team’s turnaround. “He’s a little guy, but he’s fiery.”

Timing and momentum also play roles in this tale. At midseason, the Bucs looked like they needed a trail of bread crumbs just to find the end zone and Mayfield’s completion percentage was strangely low for the modern passing game.

Yet, because the Bucs had a new offensive coordinator and a famously inept running game, they were given a little more leeway in terms of finding themselves. Now, in the midst of a four-game winning streak, Mayfield has nine touchdown passes with just one interception while the Bucs have averaged 28.5 points a game.

“I really think the story is the group doing right together,” offensive coordinator Dave Canales said. “The receivers being where they’re supposed to be, the tight ends in their blocking or … route assignments. All of it coming together. With the variety of the different things we can do, there is a lot of learning, a lot of detail that goes in.”

That’s a polite way of saying that quarterbacks often get too much credit. Or too much blame.

That’s undoubtedly true, but a quarterback can still have an outsized importance on a game. And his public demeanor and private relationships with teammates matter. Mayfield seems to have learned that lesson after his flameouts in Cleveland and Carolina. There is a joy and a humility to the way he’s approached his time in Tampa Bay, and players on both sides of the ball have talked admiringly about his attitude.

Carr, on the other hand, has seemed defensive at times, which is understandable when everyone seems to be blaming him for every disappointment on the scoreboard.

So did the Saints overpay Carr? Maybe? Probably? He’s got another $30 million guaranteed next season so the question might be premature.

And did the Bucs get a bargain with Mayfield? Undoubtedly. Maybe even the best deal in the NFL in 2023.

Of course, for the moment, that’s all perception.

We’ll know more Sunday if the Bucs are NFC South champions.

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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