Now that the new league year is upon us, and there are but a handful of top-tier players left on the open market, the focus for all NFL shot-callers turns toward the draft. While some coaches and executives left hanging around in free agency won’t have to do too much to their draft boards, other teams are understandably changing their approaches. The Patriots, for example, probably won’t draft two tight ends after picking up Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. They will, however, run two-tight end sets more often in 2021 than the eight times they did so in 2020 — probably in the first quarter of the first game alone. And the Titans probably aren’t quite as desperate for an edge-rusher after signing Bid Dupree and Denico Autry. Also, just because the Lions got Jared Goff in the Matthew Stafford trade doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be looking for a franchise quarterback, as you’re about to see.

Other teams who did improve in free agency might still be working toward further improvement in the draft. Does signing Riley Reiff mean that the Bengals are out of the picture when it comes to selecting a great offensive tackle? Most likely not. Could the Seahawks still select a running back in the first round even after re-signing Chris Carson? You bet, because they’re the Seahawks.

Wait a minute, you’re saying… the Seahawks don’t have a first-round pick this year because they offloaded it to the Jets in the Jamal Adams deal, right? Right you are, dear reader, but there are two radical trades that set this mock up for the Ari Spyros Chaos Grenade.

Here’s how that rolls. Bears fans, avert your eyes, because it’s all happening without you. There’s this:

New York Jets get: QB Deshaun Watson.

Houston Texans get: The Jets’ second, 23rd, and 34th overall picks in 2021, and the Jets’ first-round pick in 2022.

And then, there’s THIS:

Miami Dolphins get: QB Russell Wilson.

Seattle Seahawks get: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s third, 18th, and 36th overall picks in 2021, and Miami’s first-round pick in 2022.

If you haven’t slammed your laptop closed or thrown your phone across the room in total outrage, let’s get to the picks. As always, all criticisms of this mock draft should be rife with misspellings, awful grammar, and ad hominem insults.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

(David Platt/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports)

Lock it in, kids. This is as automatic as it gets.

2. Houston Texans (from New York Jets): Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

New York Jets get: QB Deshaun Watson.

Houston Texans get: The Jets’ second overall pick, 23rd overall pick, and 34th overall pick in 2021; the Jets’ first-round pick in 2022.

If the draft happened today, would the Jets shy away from this deal because of the current complications in Watson’s life? Perhaps. But for the moment, let’s assume he’s tradeable. With that, the Jets get Watson and their obvious franchise quarterback. And with that, the Texans replace Watson with Wilson, who did his thing in a relatively limited passing offense, but did it to a level that should fit well with what offensive coordinator Tim Kelly wants to accomplish. Last season when running boot and creating outside the pocket, Wilson completed 27 of 36 passes for 320 yards, 192 air yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions.

And when under pressure (which he’d be more often than not behind Houston’s offensive line), Wilson completed 30 of 79 passes for 534 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Throw in his preposterous numbers when using play-action (89 completions in 123 attempts for 1,548 yards, 20 touchdowns and no interceptions), and when throwing deep (35 completions in 56 attempts for 1,286 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions on throws of 20 or more air yards) and it becomes clear that, just as much as Trevor Lawrence can, Wilson represents the modern NFL paradigm of the quarterback who marries mobility and accuracy with play-action concepts.

3. Seattle Seahawks (from Miami Dolphins): Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

(Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports)

Miami Dolphins get: QB Russell Wilson.

Seattle Seahawks get: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s third and 18th overall pick in 2021, and Miami’s first-round pick in 2022.

Okay… so. The Bears wanted to trade as many first-round picks as they could manage, and a couple of players (probably including cornerback Kyle Fuller, who they just released) for Russell Wilson. Word is, Seahawks GM John Schneider shut it down at North Dakota State’s pro day. Would the Seahawks prefer to avoid a rebuilding phase? Of course they would. Did the Bears have enough capital to get this trade done with nothing but the 20th overall pick in the first round this year? Obviously, nope. Would the Dolphins have enough to rock Seattle’s world with their two-first-rounders in 2020, and Tua Tagovailoa as the throw-in? Let’s assume they do.

Beyond the trade, there’s obviously a “WHAT?” aspect to the Seahawks taking Slater with the third overall pick. But when you consider the Seahawks’ first-round history under Pete Carroll and John Schneider, when they’ve kept their first-round picks, they’ve spent them more on offensive linemen who are at least as much about pure power (Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Germain Ifedi) as opposed to pure movement, and only Okung made any sense at all as a first-round talent.

So, if there’s one team in the NFL who would take Slater over Penei Sewell this high and be perfectly happy with it, leaving the rest of the league with exploding heads? Here is that team. The Seahawks can move Slater inside to guard or over to right tackle in the short term (the Slater/Gabe Jackson guard combo would make for some very unhappy defensive tackles). and left tackle Duane Brown is 36 years old and will be a free agent after the 2021 season. Slater projects as a plus player at every position but center, and he gave Chase Young more than he could handle in 2019 before opting out in 2020.

As for the Dolphins… they have a defense with top-5 potential, they’re a top-5 quarterback away from being a Real Problem, and Wilson obviously checks all the boxes there.

4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

When the Falcons recently re-structured Matt Ryan’s contract to lower his 2021 cap hit from $40.9 million to $26.9 million, they also committed to their franchise quarterback in a serious financial sense for 2022 and 2023. Because with that re-do, Ryan now has a 2022 cap hit of $26,912,500, yes, but with a dead money figure of $65,437,500. Woof. It doesn’t get much better in 2023 — then, Ryan’s cap hit is $48,662,500, and the dead money figure is still $40.525 million. So, that’s a fait accompli for now.

New Falcons head coach Arthur Smith made his bones as the Titans’ offensive coordinator, and one of Smith’s hallmarks was creativity with multiple tight end sets. Per Sports Info Solutions, only the Browns, Raiders, and Bears had more 3TE sets on passing plays, and the Titans were the NFL’s most efficient team in such scenarios — 29 completions in 36 attempts for 260 yards, 173 air yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a heavy red zone presence. With 2TE sets, the Titans completed 114 of 176 passes for 1,511 yards, 912 air yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Since Ryan completed 78 of 108 passes for 830 yards, 461 air yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2TE sets last season, let’s enhance that with the presence of Pitts, the best tight end in this class and the kind of player who can give the Falcons an immediate threat all over the field.

Would it be unusual for the Falcons to take a tight end with the fourth overall pick? Absolutely. The Rams selected Billy Cannon with the first overall pick in the 1960 NFL draft (Cannon played for the AFL Houston Oilers instead), that’s the only time any professional football team has taken a tight end higher than 4, and Cannon only became a true tight end when he became a pro — he came into pro football as a running back. Atlanta could trade down here, but unless they could swing a deal with the Eagles — who might take Pitts with the sixth overall pick — they shouldn’t expect to use the elevator too dramatically.

5. Cincinnati Bengals: OT Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

(Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports)

The Bengals have Jonah Williams as their left tackle, and they just signed Riley Reiff to be their right tackle. So, what are we doing here? Well, Williams missed his rookie season with a shoulder injury, and he missed six games in 2020 with a knee issue. Reiff is a good player, but the Bengals still have massive issues along their line, especially in the interior. Williams allowed three sacks and 20 total pressures on 429 pass-blocking snaps, which is problematic given the fact that Cincinnati had primarily a short passing game last season.

So, maybe if you’re the Bengals, you take Sewell with the fifth overall pick, kick Williams inside to guard, and avail yourself of one of the NCAA’s best left tackles of the last decade — which is exactly what Sewell is. The Oregon alum opted out of the 2020 season, and he has just 706 pass-blocking snaps on his collegiate resume, but he gave up just one sack and 14 total pressures combined in 2018 and 2019.

6. Philadelphia Eagles: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

(John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)

The Eagles will obviously listen to offers to trade down here, but if Chase is available at six, and I’m general manager Howie Roseman, I’m trying not to injure myself running this card up to make it official. The Eagles appear to want to make Jalen Hurts the future of the quarterback position, and he’ll need better targets to make that happen. Chase opted out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 tape showed more than enough.

As Joe Burrow’s most explosive receiver in 2019, Chase showed the ability to demolish enemy defenses on everything from the simple slant to any deep route, and he reminds me of Davante Adams in his ability to beat press coverage and roll strong against any type of coverage. As close to a ding-proof a prospect as there is in this class, Chase should be an automatic pick here, and he won’t go much further down than this.

7. Denver Broncos (from Detroit Lions): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

(Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports)

Denver Broncos get: Detroit’s seventh overall pick.

Detroit Lions get: Denver’s ninth and 40th overall picks.

On March 4, new Broncos general manager George Paton was asked his opinion of third-year quarterback Drew Lock, who finished the 2020 season with a completion rate of 57.3%, 2,933 yards, 16 touchdowns, a league-leading 15 interceptions, and a passer rating of 75.4. Lock also finished 30th in DYAR and 28th in DVOA among qualifying quarterbacks. With John Elway stepping away from roster control after five straight seasons without a playoff berth, the Broncos have a new set of eyes looking at the quarterback position — and specifically at Lock, who Elway took in the second round of the 2019 draft out of Missouri.

“I did a deep drive on Drew,” Paton said. “Like I said in my [introductory] press conference, [he’s] very talented. He was inconsistent at times and has a lot to work on, but I’ve spoken with Drew. I see him every day. He’s here early and he’s working. He really wants to be great. We’re always going to try and bring in competition to every position, the quarterback as well. I like the trek that Drew is on.

“I haven’t seen Drew live on the field. I’ve just seen the tape. There is so much that goes into that when evaluating a quarterback. I like to see them live. You’d like to see them in critical situations. You like to see the accuracy. How is he with his teammates? What is the leadership like? Again, I can’t give you three things. There is so much involved in evaluating quarterbacks. I look forward to evaluating Drew further and in person. He does have all of the traits you look for in a quarterback.”

Head coach Vic Fangio in that same press conference:

“I’m confident that Drew’s going to continue to improve. Drew has had a great offseason up to this point. There’s not a lot you can do, but he’s working hard on his own and coming over here and getting workouts. I know he’s doing a lot at home by himself and watching video by himself. He’s got a good setup over there. He’s doing anything and everything he can to improve, even in February and now in March. I feel like he’ll continue to improve. As it relates to the quarterback carousel that everybody’s talking about going around the league, we’ll see how it turns out. Right now, it’s just a lot of rumors and innuendoes and everybody proposing this and that. I really don’t know what’s going to happen with some of the names that are being bandied about out there.”

So… not exactly the greatest vote of confidence. Lock plays like a developmental player at this point, the Broncos just spent a ton of money to overhaul their secondary, they picked up the $7 million guarantee option on Von Miller’s $18 million salary for 2021 after Miller missed the entire 2020 season, and all of this makes you think they’re in win now mode. Developmental players don’t really fit in that plan.

Fields is developmental in his relative struggles with processing the field at times, but he also presents a more formidable skill set than Lock has ever had. Last season for the Buckeyes, he completed 70.2% of his passes for 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, and he proved to be especially problematic for opposing defenses on deep passes, completing 19 of 32 passes of 20 or more air yards for 709 yards, nine touchdowns, two interceptions, and an NFL passer rating of 117.2. Fields does have things to work on, but he comes into the NFL a few floors above Lock, and that’s what the Broncos need at this point.

8. Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

There should be no doubt about Lance’s ability to create big plays as a running quarterback, to make any throw in the passing game, and to process a tremendous amount at the line of scrimmage. North Dakota State associate head coach and quarterbacks coach Randy Hedberg said as much of Lance when he revealed at Lance’s pro day that Lance took as many options to the line of scrimmage as Carson Wentz ever did for the Bison. So, let’s disabuse ourselves of the notion that Lance is just a run-around guy with half a clue.  Not to mention the fact that he’d be a marvelous fit over time in Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s offense.

Now, “over time” might be the caveat here, based on Lance’s one 2020 game against Central Arkansas. In that game, Lance 15 of 30 passes for 149 yards, two touchdowns, and the only interception he threw in his collegiate career. While he also ran 15 times for 143 yards and two touchdowns, and performed well against multiple blitzes, Lance also went 0-for-6 on deep throws and looked out of sorts more often than not against the Bears’ coverage switches.

It was the first real NFL-style coverages he’d seen, at least to that level, and that should present some concern regarding his immediate NFL future. So, that leaves the Panthers with a hole in the 2021 quarterback plan, though Lance projects well as a franchise guy once he learns to process things at the next level — and I don’t question his ability to get there.

9. Detroit Lions (from Denver Broncos): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

(Caitie McMekin-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Detroit Lions get: Denver’s ninth and 40th overall picks.

Denver Broncos get: Detroit’s seventh overall pick.

Good news for the Lions here — they pick up an extra second-round selection right before their own at 41, and they also get the receiver they desperately need after losing both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency. Not that the addition of Waddle will make up for the drastic difference in skill set between Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff, but Goff needs a primary target who can take short and intermediate passes and present an instant threat to the house.

Waddle can certainly do that — his 10.1 yards after catch per reception in 2020 ranked sixth in the NCAA, while his average depth of target of 11.7 ranked tied for 172nd. Goff, who completed just 13 of 43 passes last season of 20 or more air yards for 416 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, would get the after-catch creator he needs in Waddle, and that pick would at least start the process the Lions must undergo of building a passing game around a quarterback with far more physical limitations than the one they had in Stafford since 2009.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

(Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Under Mike Nolan in 2020, the Cowboys’ pass defense was abysmal no matter what they ran, and they lost cornerback Chidobe Awuzie to Cincinnati in free agency. So, let’s throw scheme out the window to a point and just give Dallas the best cornerback on the board. That might well be Farley, who opted out of the 2020 season, but probably would have been among the top three cornerbacks in the 2019 class had he declared then. Among the Cowboys’ many, many defensive issues in 2020 was that they were the NFL’s worst team against the deep ball, allowing a league-high 12 touchdowns on throws of 20 or more air yards.

In 2019, Farley allowed four completions on 15 targets for one touchdown and an opponent passer rating of 47.8. Farley is probably the most scheme-transcendent cornerback in this class, and if new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn wants to play his signature single-high stuff, Farley has the range to do that all day.

11. New York Giants: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

When Giants defensive coordinator Patrick Graham held that same position for Brian Flores for the Dolphins in 2019, the Dolphins had a very specific defensive profile: They blitzed a ton, they played a lot of man coverage, and they blitzed even more frequently when playing man coverage. Last season, the Giants were creative with their fronts and blitzes, but they didn’t play a lot of man coverage, because they didn’t have the defensive backs to do that. Per Sports Info Solutions, Big Blue played man on 130 opponent passing attempts, completing 70 passes for 883 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions.

While James Bradberry had a fine 2020 season, the rest of New York’s secondary is filled with question marks. General manager Dave Gettleman re-signed defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who had a career year under Graham, and he gave Daniel Jones the most prominent free-agent receiver in Kenny Golladay. Now, it’s time to shore up the cornerback group with a guy who can face up in man coverage against anybody.

More than any cornerback in this class, that’s Surtain, the son of the cornerback who played for the Dolphins and Chiefs from 1998 through 2008. Last season, Surtain was among the NCAA’s most dominant cornerbacks when playing Cover-0 and 2-Man, allowing just two catches on 10 targets for 25 yards. Surtain can play any coverage credibly, but when you’re looking for the press cornerback who can do everything from matching over the middle to playing the post and the deep fade, Surtain would be a perfect fit for Graham’s defensive ideal.

12. San Francisco 49ers: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

DeVonta Smith Alabama

(Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports)

Kyle Shanahan has an interesting quarterback decision to make. The 49ers’ head coach and offensive mastermind can either stick with Jimmy Garoppolo despite Garoppolo’s double-whammy of injuries and average play, or he can avail himself of another player at the position given the low dead money hit if Garoppolo is released. Either way, and if Shanahan’s ideal quarterback doesn’t present himself in the draft, QB1 is going to need the best possible array of targets. QB1 already has George Kittle as the tight end who controls the passing game, Deebo Samuel as the Swiss army knife, and Brandon Aiyuk as the speedster with potential.

Not that Shanahan needs schematic help as the NFL’s best play-designer, and the most potent offensive influencer in the game today, but with the addition of Devonta Smith running perfect routes, displaying perfect ball skills, and making contested catches you would never dare to expect from a 6-foot-1, 170-pound wideout… well, even Garoppolo would be able to work with that. If you want to find stats that detail his versatility and perfect fit in any offense, last season, he ranked first in the NCAA in deep receptions and yards, and first in screen receptions and screen yards. Wherever he is on the field, Smith will find a way to smoke your defense.

13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

The Chargers were wise to grab former Packers center Corey Linsley in free agency with a five-year, $62.5 million deal. In Justin Herbert’s rookie season, center Dan Feeney tied with Connor McGovern of the Jets for the most total pressures allowed by a center with 33. How many did Linsley allow for Green Bay, including the playoffs? Four.

So, they’ve got that covered, but there’s still a glaring need at left tackle, where the combination of Storm Norton, Trey Pipkins, and Sam Tevi gave up seven sacks and 75 total pressures — mostly on the left side. Putting Darrisaw in there as Bryan Bulaga’s bookend (if Bulaga can stay healthy) would further improve Herbert’s outlook. Last season, Darrisaw allowed no sacks, no quarterback hits, and six quarterback hurries on 293 pass-blocking snaps, showing drastic improvement over his 2018 and 2019 seasons. And if you want a guy who can block with power… well, ask North Carolina linebacker Chazz Surratt (projected as a second-day pick) about Darrisaw’s ability to go full Blind Side when it’s time to get nasty.

14. Minnesota Vikings: Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

(Matt Gentry/The Roanoke Times via AP, Pool)

The Vikings’ defense fell apart from front to back in 2020, falling from fourth in 2019 to 18th in 2020, and a lot of that had to do with a mostly absent pass rush. Ifeadi Odenigbo led the team with 42 total pressures; D.J. Wonnum ranked second with 21. You don’t always want to draft high for need, but this is a NEED., It didn’t help that Danielle Hunter missed the entire 2020 season with a herniated disc in his neck, and he’ll obviously help if he comes back healthy, but the Vikings weren’t able to do anything in free agency to help the edge. There was the signing of defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, and that’s a sneaky-good addition, but it’s time to give Mike Zimmer an elite edge-rusher in the draft — in fact, the guy in Phillips who is the best edge defender in this class.

Phillips has an interesting history. The former UCLA star left football after suffering wrist and head injuries in a 2018 scooter accident and concussions on the field, but returned with the Hurricanes for a 2020 season in which he amassed eight sacks, four quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback hurries. His combination of speed, technique, and power puts him above everyone else at his position among those available in the draft, and the injury risks appear to be in the past. The Vikings should go after this with a quickness if Phillips is still on the board.

15: New England Patriots: Trevon Moherig, S, TCU

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Perhaps the most important play in the last Super Bowl Bill Belichick won was the touchdown pass from Jared Goff to Brandin Cooks that didn’t happen. On that play in Super Bowl LIII, Goff had Cooks wide open in the end zone, but cornerback Jason McCourty screamed in out of nowhere from about 20 yards out to break it up.

If that’s a touchdown, the Rams are up 7-3 late in the third quarter, and maybe that game has a different outcome.

What does that have to do with the Patriots of today? While they did lead the league with five interceptions on passes of 20 or more air yards, they also allowed five touchdowns. And given Belichick’s historical preference for big nickel packages with three safeties, maybe let’s give that defense a legitimate deep-third eraser with multi-positional facility — something Belichick also appreciates.

That would be TCU’s Trevon Moehrig, the best safety in this draft class, and a guy who can stop plays all over the field. Some question his range in the deep third, but he played free safety on 172 snaps in Gary Patterson’s split-field coverages last season, and he looked just fine to me in that regard. Add in his 313 slot snaps and 198 snaps in the box, and you have the do-it-all guy who would be a perfect fit for the Patriots.

“Every team I talk to, I just try to tell them and show them that I’m versatile,” Moehrig said at his Friday pro day. “That I know defense, that I can communicate and process, and that I can do it at all levels. Whether it be single-high, two-high, down in the slot. I would just say that.”

Like we said, a perfect fit.

16: Arizona Cardinals: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

(Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports)

The Cardinals haven’t made the playoffs since the 2015 season when Bruce Arians was their head coach, Carson Palmer was their quarterback, and both Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown (remember him?) were posting 1,000-yard seasons. This was also an era in which the Cardinals had Patrick Peterson playing at a Hall of Fame clip, and a certain Pro Bowl/All-Pro safety named Tyrann Mathieu. This is worth mentioning because in 2020, the 8-8 Cardinals had a pass defense that allowed 26 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. Peterson is now a member of the Vikings’ defense on a one-year deal, and Arizona’s primary cornerback on the roster is Byron Murphy, who has allowed 12 touchdowns to just one interception in his two seasons.

The Cardinals were particularly susceptible to opposing offenses in 2020 when they played man coverage, allowing 16 touchdowns to five interceptions, and that’s where Horn comes in. Because only the Saints played more man coverage than the Cardinals. A malevolent press cornerback with a wolverine’s mentality on the field, Horn may be a bit to grabby for the NFL’s taste to start (he’s going to rack up some penalties), but he’s also proven to be dominant in man coverage, allowing just three receptions on 15 targets for 24 yards in Cover-0, Cover-1, and 2-Man. Unless Vance Joseph wants to switch up his defensive mindset, Horn is the perfect fit for what he is trying to accomplish — a blitz-heavy, man-heavy defense.

17. Las Vegas Raiders: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

(AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

Last one on the Raiders’ offensive line, turn out the lights? This offseason, general manager Mike Mayock, head coach Jon Gruden, and line coach Tom Cable have conspired to strip away that front five for parts. They traded away center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson, leaving left tackle Kolton Miller and guards Denzelle Good and Richie Incognito as relative stalwarts from last season. Whatever the plan is, that’s where they are now — without three of their four best linemen from 2020, and flapping in the breeze with legitimate replacements.

As we mentioned when detailing Seattle’s pick of Rashawn Slater, Cable (who was Seattle’s line coach from 2011 through 2017) has generally preferred blockers who are tough in the run game, with allegedly “glass-eating” personalities, and he’s of the opinion that he can coach up the rest. Whether that’s true or not, of all the linemen in this class, Jenkins may best project as an ideal fit for Cable’s preferences. A 6-foot-6, 310-pound monster who can erase people right off the screen in the run game, Jenkins allowed just four total pressures in 211 pass-blocking snaps in 2020. You won’t find his pass sets on anybody’s clinic tape, but he gets the job done. One can imagine Cable watching Jenkins forklifting and cockroach-blocking unfortunate edge-rushers all over the place, and writing him in as OT1 no matter what.

18. Seattle Seahawks (from Miami Dolphins): Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina

(Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)

This is where Pete Carroll goes all in with the possible “F-yous” to modern analytical thought. Because you don’t draft a running back in the first round, and you certainly don’t do it with one of the picks you got in a trade for Russell Freaking Wilson. But remember, this is the same team that selected San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 draft, and Williams presents a far more imposing physical profile. He’s nothing like Penny (who has done very little in the NFL), somewhat similar to Chris Carson, who the Seahawks just re-signed to a two-year, $14.6 million contract, and far more like an unholy combination of Nick Chubb and Marshawn Lynch.

A better pure running back than (though not as versatile as) Alabama’s Najee Harris, Williams forced 85 missed tackles in 2020 — 76 as a runner (the highest total in the country), and nine more as a receiver. And of all NCAA running backs in 2020, only Michael Carter, Williams’ backfield partner at North Carolina, had more rushing attempts of 15 or more yards than Williams’ 27 for 660 yards, Carroll wants the running back to be the tone-setter in his offense, and the combination of Williams, Carson, and a developing Tua Tagovailoa might be good enough to satisfy Carroll’s ceaseless need for offensive balance, at the inevitable cost of explosive passing plays.

19. Washington Football Team: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

(Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports)

Washington’s passing game officially becomes illegal with this pick. Yes, they need a quarterback beyond Ryan “YOLO” Fitzpatrick, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke. But with the free-agency addition of Curtis Samuel to top target Terry McLaurin, and the potential for Moore to blow defenses up with everything from slip screens to deep posts, they can wait on that. Last season, the 5-foot-11, 184-pound Moore forced 18 missed tackles (tied for sixth in the NCAA), and caught 11 of 19 deep passes for 490 yards and four touchdowns. If you thought Fitzmagic had swag before, watch him in this offense.

20. Chicago Bears: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

[Staff Photo/Gary Cosby Jr.]

Well, sure. Why the heck not? After whiffing in the Russell Wilson sweepstakes, the Bears are left with (you’ll pardon the expression) Nick Foles, and the newly signed Andy Dalton (riiiiiiight). the Bears continue a quarterback curse that has gone on since Sid Luckman’s last good season in 1946.

Jones does most of what you want at an exceedingly high level — In 2020, he completed 311 of 402 passes for 4.500 yards, 41 touchdowns, and four interceptions. When under pressure, he completed 56 of 88 passes for 976 yards, 556 air yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 131.4. No quarterback in a major program had more touchdown passes or had a higher quarterback rating under pressure. On throws of 20 or more air yards, he completed 33 of 56 passes for 1.355 yards, 17 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.0. No other quarterback had more deep touchdown passes than Jones.

Play-action or not? It didn’t matter. Jones threw 19 touchdown passes to two interceptions with play-action, and 22 touchdown passes to two interceptions without.

Why would be drop to 20? Because the modern NFL requires quarterbacks to display mobility and second-reaction ability, and Jones has not shown much of that at all. But he’s a great pocket mover (the combination of liability and asset is why so many mock him to the Patriots), and perhaps he can be developed into a league-average mover on boots and scramble drills. From Day 1, though, he’s an improvement over what the Bears are hauling out there at the position.

21. Indianapolis Colts: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

(Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Colts lost Denico Autry to the Titans in free agency, which leaves them a bit short when it comes to edge guys who can kick inside when necessary. DeForest Buckner is the epicenter of that defensive line, and justifiably so, and Justin Houston is coming off a couple of productive seasons, but general manager Chris Ballard might want to get younger and more dynamic on the edge, and Rousseau fits that ideal perfectly. It’ll take some time for Rousseau to get his pass-rush moves together, but his 15.5 sacks in 2019 (he opted out in 2020), along with six quarterback hits and 24 quarterback hurries, represent more than just noise.

Strong enough to kick inside (he had 92 snaps inside the tackles in 2019) and athletic enough to drop into coverage and cover the flat, Rousseau would be the perfect developmental pick for a defense on the rise.

22. Tennessee Titans: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, DB/LB, Notre Dame

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

The Titans had among the NFL’s worst pass rushes in 2020. and they went after that problem with a vengeance in the new league year, adding Bud Dupree and Denico Autry in free agency. Now, Tennessee can focus on another defensive issue — a linebacker-to-safety group that didn’t always overwhelm. There are questions as to whether Owusu-Koramoah fits better in the NFL as a linebacker or a safety, and the correct answer is, “Yes.” The Titans were particularly vulnerable in slot coverage last season, and Owusu-Koramoah had 200 snaps there last season, allowing 14 catches on 25 targets for 152 yards, 101 yards after the catch, one touchdown, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 70.8.

As they say in the Made for TV universe, “But wait… there’s more!” Owusu-Koramoah played everywhere from the defensive line to the box to free safety, all of it credibly, and in the right system, he’ll be a table-setter and matchup nightmare for enemy offenses. In the wrong system, he’ll be Just A Guy, but we’ll give Mike Vrabel and his staff the benefit of the doubt.

23. Houston Texans (from New York Jets): Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida State

(AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)

The Texans are replacing Deshaun Watson with Zach Wilson (at least in this mock), they have needs all over the place, and their free-agent signings resemble a CFL depth chart. So, we can go just about anywhere here. Perhaps we should begin with a secondary that was awful last season — in 2020, Houston’s cornerbacks combined to allow 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Yikes.

There are those who will insist that Samuel, the son of the Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons cornerback who totaled 51 interceptions from 2003-2013, is too small at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds to play outside cornerback in the modern NFL. But he has the speed, feistiness, and diagnostic ability to excel in any kind of zone coverage, which new Houston defensive coordinator Lovie Smith will likely feature. Samuel Jr. reminds me less of his dad than of another former NFL defensive back who has seen his son succeed in the NFL — that would be Antoine Winfield Sr., the 5-foot-9, 180-pound cornerback who made three Pro Bowls at a time when slot defenders weren’t really a thing as starters.

Samuel Jr., who allowed 19 receptions on 32 targets for 179 yards, 81 yards after the catch, one touchdown, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 46.2 in 2020, could have the same kind of impact in the right defense.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

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Even if the Steelers are somehow able to re-sign left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, there are questions all over Pittsburgh’s offensive line following center Mike Pouncey’s retirement. Vera-Tucker would be a great pick here because he’s played both left guard and left tackle at a high level after kicking outside in 2020. Vera-Tucker allowed just two sacks and no pressures that weren’t authored by Oregon super-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux (two sacks and four pressures in that case), and he held up better against Thibodeaux on a snap-to-snap basis than the numbers would imply. An automatic plug-and-play guy at left guard, Vera-Tucker can also excel in a quick passing game featuring power running, which is Pittsburgh’s current offensive ideal.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

(Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports)

The Jaguars started to rebuild the defense Tom Coughlin blew apart over time by telling everyone to get off his lawn by signing cornerback Shaquill Griffin and safety Rayshawn Jenkins, and that’s a good start. Now, what defensive coordinator Joe Cullen needs is a do-it-all linebacker who can glue together a defense that was not nearly as aggressive at it needed to be.

Parsons would fit that role ideally as a modern multi-positional player who can star everywhere from the box to the slot to free safety in a pinch. An outstanding blitzer who plays as if his rear end is on fire, Parsons amassed five sacks, eight quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries in 2019 before opting out of the 2020 season. Some have concerns about his coverage ability, but in that same 2019 season, he allowed 28 receptions on 43 targets for 340 yards, 143 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 89.3.

There are off-field issues to consider, and that may cause Parsons to slip into the bottom quarter of the first round, but let’s just say that new Jaguars shot-caller Urban Meyer has never let that stand in the way of things before.

26. Cleveland Browns: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

(Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports)

The Browns did brilliant work in improving their secondary in free agency, pillaging the Rams for cornerback Troy Hill and safety John Johnson III. That made a team that went 11-5 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 even better, and adding a pass-rusher to a front led by Myles Garrett would make that defense even more formidable. Olivier Vernon is still on the open market, and he might be more of a rotational player at this point.

Paye needs to work on his pass-rush moves, but you can say that about at least 95% of the defensive linemen in any draft class. More importantly, the tape shows a 6-foot-4, 272-pound athletic freak with tremendous strength, speed through the gap, and the ability to take on double teams, which he faced quite often. Paye could be one of those pass-rushers who need a year to get it all together at the NFL level, but when he does, watch out. Paye did put up 81 total pressures and 65 stops in four seasons with the Wolverines, and he’s capable of even more.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

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The Ravens reportedly offered JuJu Smith-Schuster more money to sign with them than the Steelers offered the receiver to re-sign in Pittsburgh, but no dice. So, Baltimore’s search for a true No. 1 receiver goes unmerrily along. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews tied for the team lead with 58 catches last season, and Brown got his 58 on 100 targets. Not ideal. Bateman, who caught 36 passes for 472 yards and two touchdowns in just five games last season for the Golden Gophers, would give Lamar Jackson and that up-and-down Ravens passing game something it doesn’t currently have — a big (6-foot-2, 210-pound) receiver with freaky catch radius, contested catch ability, and a knack for winning consistently both outside and in the slot.

Bateman isn’t a burner per se — he caught just two of five passes of 20 or more air yards — but the last time Baltimore won a Super Bowl, the team had Anquan Boldin as its primary possession receiver, and Bateman has the tools to make a similar impact.

28. New Orleans Saints: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

(Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports)

The Saints lost Trey Hendrickson to the Bengals in free agency, and though Hendrickson isn’t a scheme-transcendent player (more a pure speed-rusher from the edge), defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will surely miss Hendrickson’s 13.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback hurries. But with the addition of Ojulari, who put up 9.5 sacks, eight quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback hurries in just 10 games last season, Allen would have another dynamic speed-rusher who wins with both quickness and technique.

Frenetic to and through the pocket, and with the ability to dip-and-rip around the arc and separate from blockers in space, Ojulari plays with more strength than his 6-foot-3, 240-pound frame might suggest. And if you’re not set in your blocking stance when he’s screaming off the edge with his hand on the ground, good luck catching up with him.

29. Green Bay Packers: Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

(Nikos Frazier-USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Packers are walking into the 2021 league year with a new defensive coordinator in Joe Barry, and a secondary with one cornerback (Jaire Alexander) they don’t have to worry about. Kevin King is a free agent, and is coming off an unfortunate performance against the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game in which he allowed five catches on seven targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Alexander is a top-five player at his position; he’s also the only Green Bay cornerback besides Chandon Sullivan to grab an interception last season. It’s time to give Alexander a lockdown bookend, and Newsome would be a perfect addition.

Newsome was decent in his first two collegiate seasons, but he put it all together at exactly the right time in 2020, allowing just 12 catches on 34 targets for 93 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and an opponent passer rating of 31.7. He missed all but 17 snaps of the Wildcats’ game against Ohio State before leaving with a groin injury, but when he was in the game, Justin Fields didn’t dare test him.

It’s as an intermediate and deep eraser that Newsome shines as well or better than any other cornerback in this class. Against throws of 10-19 air yards in 2020, Newsome allowed just one reception on eight targets and an opponent passer rating of 0.0. Against throws of 20 or more air yards, Newsome was targeted seven times and didn’t allow a single catch. Whether in press or off coverage, he’s going to get sticky with his receiver throughout the route, and life will be very tough for the opposing quarterback when he decides to grip it and rip it with Newsome as the barrier.

Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez discovered that very quickly on November 7…

…and Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz experienced an even more unpleasant phenomenon two weeks later when he tried to hit receiver Chimere Dike on a deep sideline route, only to find that Newsome had run Dike’s route better than Dike had. The result? Newsome’s one interception last season. Dike had two catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in this game, but nothing good happened for him when Newsome was on his tail.

“There’s really no secrets,” Newsome told me after his March 9 pro day drills regarding his knack for deep coverage. “It’s just a mentality. I’m a very confident player. If I eliminate those deep routes, I don’t think a team’s going to beat us. Just knowing that, and knowing where my help’s coming from, knowing that my guy on the other side of the field is doing his job, you know, I just don’t want to let the team down. I just trust in my technique, and work it a lot in practice with our DB coach Mack (Matt MacPherson, the team’s Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Backs), so credit to him, as well. We focus a lot on playing through the hands, and things like that. I don’t really know if there’s a secret; you’ve just got to go out there, be confident, and be a dog out there.”

As regards their secondary, the Packers could use another dog out there.

30. Buffalo Bills: Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State

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The Bills lost John Brown to the Raiders and picked up ex-Saints receiver Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, which was at least a push in terms of talent, and a win in terms of cost. They also retained linebacker Matt Milano and offensive tackle Daryl Williams, their two most prominent free agents. The roster is as stacked as you’ll find in the NFL today, but the guard position could use some reinforcement — specifically right guard, where Brian Winters allowed three sacks, eight quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback hurries in 395 pass-blocking snaps. Wyatt Davis to the rescue? Well, Davis’ lineage has a legacy with that.

Davis’ grandfather was Willie Davis, the Hall of Fame Packers linebacker who was renowned as the only player Vince Lombardi coached that he never yelled at. His father Duane played Alvin Mack in “The Program,” and was famous for his “Kill ’em all — let the paramedics sort ’em out” quote in that movie.

Wyatt Davis doesn’t play with that much insane fervor, but he’d be a natural fit in a Bills offensive line with his agility to block in space and in zone schemes, and his strength to separate defenders from their original intentions as a gap puller.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

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The Chiefs made it official before the start of the league year — they decided to move on from both of their starting offensive tackles (Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz) to get themselves in cap compliance. We saw what Kansas City’s offense looked like without both Fisher and Schwartz in Super Bowl LV — not good at all. So, it’s time for Andy Reid and line coach Andy Heck to find themselves some new edge blockers with familiarity in an offense in which a quarterback runs a lot, and makes a ton of second-reaction throws.

As Trey Lance’s primary bodyguard, Radunz certainly measures up. He allowed no sacks, one quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback hurries in 349 pass-blocking snaps in 2019. and no pressures of any kind in his one 2020 game against Central Arkansas when he faced a ton of blitzes. A highly athletic and intelligent blocker with some strength concerns, Radunz would be an ideal fit in the Chiefs’ offense, and let the weightroom take care of the rest.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jevon Holland, DB, Oregon

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The Buccaneers followed their Super Bowl win with a free agency period in which they managed to retain all their key players potentially on the move. With Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, and Shaquil Barrett all on board, it would appear that Bruce Arians’ team is ready to go for two. Part of the reason the Bucs went for one in the first place was a safety group that went from good to great in the postseason, especially rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. and second-year man Mike Edwards.

The slot position was more problematic for Todd Bowles and his defense, whether the slot guy was a cornerback or a safety. So, in a move that might perfect that defense, let’s give Bowles a multi-positional option in Holland, who played 399 slot coverage snaps in 2019 (he opted out in 2020), allowing 36 catches on 59 targets for 394 yards, 153 yards after the catch, one touchdown, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 65.2. Holland had reps everywhere from free safety, where he shows the range to win up top, to the box, obviously the slot, and as an occasional blitzer at the defensive line.

You think Bowles might enjoy having an opportunist like this covering crossers and seam routes behind Lavonte David and Devin White? I do.