The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,800) Seattle Mariners (-136) vs. Minnesota Twins
Gilbert is a fairly obvious choice for all contest types today. He’s taking on the Twins, whom Vegas has implied for the fewest runs on the slate at just 3.6. He and the Mariners are also one of the heavier moneyline favorites on the slate today, though that doesn’t say much when no team is better than -151.
The biggest factor, of course, is the Twins’ well-publicized strikeout rate. Minnesota leads the majors in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 27.1%. That’s more than a full percent higher than the next worst team, Gilbert’s Mariners (more on them later).
That’s an ideal setup for a pitcher like Gilbert. His run prevention is borderline ace levels, with a 3.35 xERA on the season. He’s been less appealing for DFS thanks to a moderate 24.8% strikeout rate, but the Twins should elevate that number tonight.
If we combine his rock-solid run prevention with expanded upside against the free-swinging Twins, we have an excellent floor/ceiling combination for DFS. He leads THE BAT projections in median and ceiling while coming in a close second in the FantasyLabs projection set.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Matt Manning ($6,800) Detroit Tigers (-134) at Kansas City Royals
I’m going away from the projections a bit with Manning tonight. He has an excellent matchup with the Royals, who have a top-five strikeout rate against righties and the lowest wRC+ in the majors. That’s a big departure from the kind of matchups Manning has faced so far.
He’s been solid through his five starts this season, averaging 14.6 DraftKings points. It’s even more impressive when you look at who he’s faced. He’s faced Texas (second in wRC+ against righties), Toronto twice (seventh), and Houston (15th). The only weaker team he’s faced has been the Rockies, but that game was at Coors Field.
Manning is also working back from an injury and looked much better in his last start before the all-star break. He threw 6.2 scoreless innings without allowing a hit, adding five strikeouts against the Blue Jays. If he can replicate that level of performance against a much weaker lineup, he’s an absolute steal at his $6,800 price tag.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Manning’s ability to generate outs in this spot:
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Sonny Gray ($9,600) Minnesota Twins (+115) at Seattle Mariners
Given the expected popularity of his counterpart Gilbert, we should be getting a solid ownership discount on Gray today. That’s a good thing for GPPs because he’d be on way more rosters were he not facing off against the slate’s chalkiest arm.
As mentioned above, the Mariners strike out more than any other team except the Twins. Like Gilbert, that helps boost Gray’s ceiling significantly. He has a sub-3.00 ERA on the season, so if he can outperform his mid-20% strikeout rate, he’s in line for a massive performance.
Gray’s underdog status makes him less appealing than Gilbert on paper. Still, it’s not as if these are wide odds; this game is reasonably close to a toss-up. We could even stack both arms in this one, giving us a fairly contrarian build.
That plan would also take advantage of the game conditions. This one has an 81 Park Factor for pitchers, tied for the best mark on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants are visiting Coors Field East, aka the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, where they’re taking on the Reds and pitcher Brandon Williamson ($6,000). Williamson has an ERA over five through ten starts this year, with all of his ERA predictors also north of five.
Of course, the Park Factor is the real driver of the Giants’ slate-leading 5.2-run implied total today. While calling it Coors Field East is a bit tongue-in-cheek, the 83 Park Factor for right-handed hitters in Cincinnati leads the slate, with a mark of 80 for lefties not far behind.
All of the above combines to make the price tags on the Giants hitters absurdly cheap today. While our models suggest an unorthodox 1-2-3-4-7 stack, swapping to the Giants’ top five batters would still cost just over $18,000.
That makes them a strong play in cash games and tournaments, with enough leftover salary to fit some big stars into the lineup.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($4,300 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
The Cardinals are an interesting team tonight. On the one hand, they have a few hitters — Contreras included — with excellent platoon splits against left-handed pitching. On the other, they’re matched up with a tough lefty in Luzardo, leading to a moderate 4.4-run implied total.
Still, the Cardinals have the talent to win in that matchup, as evidenced by all of the bright green on their PlateIQ screen:
Contreras leads the group in ISO while coming in second in wOBA. Given that he plays a fairly thin position for offensive production, that’s an especially rare and valuable occurrence.
He leads THE BAT’s catcher projections and comes in with a reasonable price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Riley Greene OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (Jordan Lyles)
We don’t see a lot of five-run implied totals for the lowly Tigers, which means we should take notice when we do. Greene is the obvious starting point if building around the Tigers, as the team’s best hitter by a fairly wide margin.
He missed all of June and the first week of July but hit the ground running after his injury. He has six hits in five games since returning, including a home run. Overall, he’s hitting .299 on the season, with six steals and six homers through 60 games.
Those numbers might not jump off the page, but he’s enough of a threat with his power and speed to have a strong ceiling projection, and his .299 average raises his floor. He ranks third in THE BAT’s median projections for outfielders, ahead of plenty of better-known and more expensive hitters.
Glebyer Torres 2B ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Los Angles Angels (Griffin Canning)
While Mookie Betts’ ($6,400 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel) eligibility at second base makes him the obvious top option today (and nearly every day), Torres is a solid alternative at a considerably cheaper price point. He’s projected within a half-point of Mookie in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs Models while coming in considerably cheaper and at less projected ownership.
He stands out on FanDuel with a 92% Bargain Rating, making him far too cheap for his expected production in a solid matchup.
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July 17, 2023 at 11:25PM
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MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, July 17): Can Matt Manning Do It Again? - Fantasy Labs
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